Covid-19 Infection for New York City

Objectives

1) Using only community death rates data and Decision Machine, learn the daily disease source strength and infection rate from the observed death toll.

2) Based on factual evidence, prove that public health policy and the response of New Yorkers is helping to decrease the infection rate.

3) Alert health officials and the public to changes in the infection rate curve especially as it flattens and ultimately bends downward.

4) Monitor infection rate for any resurgence.

5) Report a top for the infection rate curve.

6) Measure the infection rate response as public health policy changes, therapies are introduced, we return to work, and our daily lives look familiar again.

Covid-19 Geiger Counter machine learned source strength and infection are based on 3% mortality. We use the deaths data from The New York Times, based on reports from state and local health agencies. Plots use the date when the data was made publicly available.

Analysis and Plots

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New York City

Population approx. 8.6 million. New York City has been in Recovery since the summer (infection ratio consistently negative), but Recovery has levelled off in the last two months. The Infection Ratio has been rising and in the last month has turned positive, but is still less than 0.01. No wave here.

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Suffolk

Population approx. 1.5 million. The Infection Ratio is positive and elevated, but seems to be dropping back into Recovery. Small COVID-19 wave, but top seems to be in sight.

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Nassau

Population approx. 1.4 million. The Infection Rate is increasing again, and the Infection Ratio is positive and elevated. Infection Ratio is still modest. Early in the Ignition Phase, and could still drop back into Recovery with an effort. No evidence of newer, more virulent strains to date. Free Energy (energy available to drive the infection rate and ratio up) is level.

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Westchester

Population approx. 1 million. The Infection Rate is positive and elevated, but seems to be dropping back into Recovery (consistently negative infection ratio).

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Rockland

Population approx. 330,000. The Infection Rate is increasing slightly again, and the Infection Ratio bouncing between positive and negative values. No evidence of newer, more virulent strains to date. Free Energy (energy available to drive the infection rate and ratio up) is level.